Harmonic reducer 2021 will usher in the first round of shuffling

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China Transmission Network Market Analysis

[China Transmission Network Market Analysis] After seeing so many enterprises entering, the industry began to worry: the reshuffle period of harmonic reducer is coming!

"There will be the first round of reshuffle next year, and it is estimated that a number of enterprises will die."

"There is already excess production capacity. How can domestic robots sell so much?"

"There are still some enterprises expanding production, but the market growth is not so fast."

At the fair, these voices came, anxious, theatergoers, pessimistic... After a small outbreak of domestic harmonic reducers, the rush of enterprises and the upsurge of production expansion also heralded a very serious problem: overcapacity.

How did the situation of more monks and less porridge come about?

In less than a year, in addition to the green, Laifu harmonic and other domestic harmonic reducer has achieved large-scale mass production is in full swing to expand production, Honghui harmonic, Haozhi electromechanical, Asahi precision harmonic, Hongyuan harmonic, Zhuhai Junxing and other enterprises have also said that they are increasing production capacity.

Previously, Green Harmonic said it expected to sell 200000 harmonic reducers in 2018 and is currently building a new industrial 4.0 smart factory with an annual output of 600000 harmonic reducers.

From the current situation, the production capacity of domestic harmonic reducer will reach at least 500000 units by next year, but is the market that big? GGII data show that the new demand for industrial robot reducer in China is expected to exceed 435000 units in 2018, and the market size is expected to reach about 3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%. This also includes the demand for RV reducers.

There is no doubt that in the short term, foreign robot products will not use domestic harmonic reducer, and a large part of domestic robot brands are using foreign reducer brands. Apart from these, the market for domestic harmonic reducer is really limited.

"In fact, everyone knows in their hearts that the demand for domestic harmonic reducers next year is unlikely to exceed 200000 sets, and the cake is only so big." Insiders pointed out.

The first round of reshuffle is approaching

The problem of reducer equipment cost and delivery time determines that it is not easy to expand production. Once the decision is made to expand production, it means to bear the risk of equipment cost.

"The equipment has been bought and the cost is there, so it is necessary to expand production next year. At most, when the market is not good, we will not open three shifts and open one shift of production. We can barely get by. At the end of this year, many reducer enterprises will face fierce competition after their production capacity expansion." Laifu harmonic chairman Zhang Jie pointed out.

Zou Yin, general manager of Asahi Precision, said that the time node for shuffling will gradually reflect the quality problems of domestic reducers after they have been used in the market for 2 to 3 years, and this time node has also arrived.

"Enterprises oriented by market share and low-price competitiveness will face the test of quality and reputation, while enterprises that devote themselves to research are growing step by step. Although they have lost their temporary brilliant achievements, the market impact is very small and will not have much impact in the reshuffle." Zou agreed to point out further.

On the other hand, the price reduction of harmonic reducer further compresses the profit space of new enterprises, which further intensifies the competition between enterprises. For new enterprises, the situation is more severe. "Next year, the harmonic reducer will definitely have a substantial price reduction, and the profit margin will be lower and lower." Informed sources revealed.

In addition, from the perspective of the general environment, the growth rate of the entire robot industry declined in 2018, and the impact on the harmonic reducer cannot be ignored. Among them, the growth rate of domestic robots is obviously not up to expectations, which can be seen from the semi annual report released by listed companies.

In 2016 and 2017, the rapid development of domestic robots has given the robot industry great confidence that the building will be built. However, it is this blind and optimistic attitude that makes people ignore some problems. With the emergence of industry fluctuations, many enterprises have begun to be caught off guard. This is also one of the reasons why the growth rate of domestic robots in the first half of the year did not meet the expectation, And the growth rate of domestic robots will inevitably affect the growth rate of domestic harmonic reducer.

On the one hand, the expansion of domestic harmonic reducer enterprises leads to overcapacity, on the other hand, the growth rate of domestic robots is not as expected, which will also affect the growth of domestic harmonic reducer. In addition, the price reduction will reduce the profit margin. Industry insiders predict that domestic harmonic reducer will usher in the first round of reshuffle period.

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